Dong, Li, et al. "Distilling wisdom of crowds in online communities: A novel prediction market constructed with comment posters." Decision Support Systems (2024): 114190.

This study proposes a novel artificial prediction market designed to extract the wisdom of crowds from online communities effectively. Unlike traditional prediction markets, this market utilizes "artificial human traders" constructed from online comments to dynamically filter out low-quality contributions. Using comment data from the Eastmoney stock forum, the market's effectiveness in predicting stock price movements on the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index is validated. Results demonstrate superior performance in extracting crowd wisdom compared to traditional prediction polls, highlighting the market's potential for decision-making and investment portfolio management.