Kokkodis, Marios, and Theodoros Lappas. "Realizing the Activation Potential of Online Communities." (2016).

This study introduces a stochastic framework aimed at identifying potential active contributors within online communities, focusing on the common challenge of the 1-9-90 principle. This principle outlines that in most online communities, 1% of users create content, 9% interact with it, and 90% lurk without contributing. By using a Hidden Markov Model to track the evolution of user behavior and parametric survival models to predict the likelihood of users transitioning to heavy contributors, this research provides insights into activating lurkers. The framework was tested on a large dataset from a diabetes-focused online community, offering a novel approach to enhancing engagement and participation in online forums.